22.2.11

Social Waves and a proposed model

The impact analysis of social waves as described by Alvin Toffler in his work “The Third Wave”  can be graphed as wave function of a sinusoidal wave in a non-uniform medium with loss where horizontal axis is time and vertical axis as impact on the society in terms of social stability. The down turns result from wars, social conflicts and crisis.  We can use this function as a basis for estimate and we can predict two features of the coming wave
1-The time between Information age and the fourth wave will be approximately 20 years (each wave taking less time)
and
2-The impact on the society and down and upturns will have less impact (the first waves resulted in big wars like Crusades (end of agricultural era), First and Second World war (End of Industrial revolution) ,  Financial Crisis (end of Information age)
Based on this model and observations on the society, we have a vision that first 20 years of 21st Century will be the Quality Standardization era. Already a big revolution in Quality Management took place in year 2000 when ISO has proposed 9000 Quality Management System with empowerment and sustainability as a global vision.
We think that society will stabilize itself into the ideal state with the sustainable, environment, high quality standards and fairplay in the business and economics.
Quality Standards will be unified by using the third wave (Information) technology and locally implemented using the fourth wave (Quality) management systems to form the idealized environment what we call "Qualitopia*"
This will be the realization of human dream of Plato, Lao Tse, More, Von Neumann, Juran, Deming and many others.

*link for Qualitopia:
Qualitopia, the Quest for Perfection Through Quality Management Principles (January 6, 2010). Available at SSRN:
http://ssrn.com/abstract=1550639
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2 yorum:

  1. Mel Arat23 Şubat 2011 05:55

    Dear Mehmet,

    It looks after the quality phase, there is a stabilization. It might be true for a one choice world.

    But when we consider the China's non-capitalist / non-democratic and non traditional system, we can assume that there might be some alternative development routes. Therefore, there might be fluctuations in the history of future, I guess.

    YanıtlaSil
  2. Mehmet Zirek11 Mart 2011 15:19

    Dear Professor Arat,
    First of all, thank you for your interest in the social wave theory and for your contribution to the idea with your comment.
    I see no contradiction between the alternative development routes such as China's trend and the idea of Quality wave. Of course the Q-wave will not come to all societies at once and also the standards of different societies do not need to be common or equal to each other. If you have noticed the downturn of Q-wave, this even agrees with your assumption of fluctuations in the future. One thing we can see common in the world is that in all societies which has reached a level of maturity in the information age, a period of standardization and Quality management is starting, as a rule, which supports the Q-wave theory.

    YanıtlaSil

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